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Sunday, September 13, 2009

Five Field Goals

Assume for the moment that South Carolina is capable, or at least competent offensively.

Now, hypothesize that Georgia would play an aggressive, risk-taking defense, rather than a keep-everything-in-front-of you, no big plays defense.

What percentage of drives do you believe would end in a punt or turnover as a result of such aggressiveness?

Aesthetically, Georgia's defense is death by a thousand cuts. So painful to watch. You can see the frustration on the faces of offensive players begging to be allowed back on the field. You fear for the lungs and legs of the defensive players who've been asked so much from. It seems like such a terrible strategy, this bend-but-don't-break thing.

But then I see South Carolina forced to kick 5 field goals with a line of scrimmage inside our 25, and a goal line stop to seal the game to boot. That's crazy. Consider - what if Georgia did play an aggressive, risk-taking strategy and caused INTs or fumble recoveries on half of those possessions, but allowed TDs on the other half (which would've been insanely efficient for a D.) Well, that'd be 21 points where 15 were allowed - and a 4 point win would've become a 2 point loss.

Anecdotal, yes. And still ugly. And, of course, an aggressive defense might very well stop drives long before they get into the red zone. And bend-but-don't-break doesn't always lead to 5 FGs and a goal line stop - an unlucky bounce or a bad call or a missed assignment or a slipped tackle and one of those FGs becomes a TD. But... walking out of the stadium, I thought maybe we were lucky, but maybe Martinez's strategy actually preserved a win.

I guess it depends on what you think of South Carolina's offense. If it's capable of making a team pay for taking risks, then against similarly talented offenses, I might swallow hard and suffer through the continuous stream of 8 yard tight end curl routes on 3rd and 7s. If it's the kind of team that completes around half its passes and can't muster 150 yards against a mid-tier ACC team... well, then the Dawgs might think about taking a few more risks against some of their upcoming opponents.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Nugget from Phil Steele for next weekend

So I read Phil Steele on the can, and it could be said that I'm not exactly studying during that time. So I want to make sure I remember a few nuggs that kind of jump off the page.

In his "Football 365 Days a Year" piece, which sticks in a number of items he couldn't fit into their own full article, Steele focuses on starts lost to injury in the previous year. Basically, he suggests that injuries have a lot to do with luck, and a team that suffers a ton of injuries one year isn't likely to suffer as many the next while a team with an incredibly small number of injuries isn't likely to have the same good fortune. Relatedly, a team that has suffered a lot of injuries in the previous year benefits from a few silver linings: not only will many of those good players who were injured return (and since they were the starters before injury, it's possible they add significant talent), but because of those same injuries, the team allowed backups to gain significant in-game experience.

For example, Trinton Sturdivant was Georgia's best lineman heading into last year, when he suffered a season-ending injury in training camp. He returns this year, providing a strong infusion of talent (assuming he's healthy). Consider also, that because of Sturdivant's injury, Vince Vance made 6 starts (before also getting injured). Vance is back now too. Further, because of Vance's injury, Clint Boling played all over the line (versatility can be a massive advantage for a pretty deep line). And Bean Anderson picked up 7 starts. Now, entering the season, Vance and Anderson are backups on the depth chart and they have 13 starts and hundreds of snaps under their belt.

Back to Steele (and this is on pg. 314 if you're keeping up at home). Steele has calculated a raw number of games that starters have lost to injury or suspension. Then he's analyzed how teams with significantly large or small amounts of games starters have lost performed in the next year. Steele's numbers over the last 5 years:

If a team loses 32 or more starts in one year, 74.5% of the time that team improves their record the following year (41 out of 55).

If a team loses 6 or fewer starts in one year, only 35.7% of the time did that team improve their record the following year (15 of 42).

Steele's anecdotes are even better. This time last year, Utah had the most starts lost in the previous season (51 starts lost). They improved from 9-4 to 13-0. This time last year, Illinois was coming off a run to the Rose Bowl in a year when they suffered just 2 starts lost. They ended up 5-7. Purdue lost just 4 starts in 2007 when they went 8-4; they went 4-8 in 2008.

So how does this fit in with next weekend?

Last year, Georgia lost 44 starts to injury or suspension, which was tied for 6th most in the nation.

Last year, Oklahoma State lost all of 2 starts to injury or suspension, which was the second fewest in the nation.

From my numbers, guys who are listed as backups on Georgia's current depth chart have as many as 47 career starts, among at least 10 different players (and that's just for last year). Oklahoma State's depth chart has backups with 8 total starts and that's just 2 players.

Could be hot next week. If it's a shootout, players will need to get rotated in and out. Just something to think about.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Flick the Button

1. The Duchess. Has not this film been made a dozen times before? Who ponies up the (I'd guess sizable amount of) money to produce these sorts of films? What's the audience? I'm not sure why I was a part of it. You're Fired.
2. Transsiberian. I've always had an odd interest in central Russia, so I kind of wanted this to be good. It was OK, but there was something missing throughout. Maybe miscast, maybe just not the movie I would've made. I didn't hate it, but it wasn't anything to recommend to anyone. You're Fired.
3. RockNRolla. Not as much of a collossal turd as Revolver was, but not as good as Lock Stock or Snatch. A handful of interesting characters, but not all that memorable. You're Fired.
4. Changeling. Far better than expected. Eastwood can do suspense, even if he tends to the cliche Steak Knives.
5. Brick. Exceptionally good. I watched it twice and I'd watch it again. See this. Cadillac.
6. The Dead Girl. An odd movie that I wouldn't recommend, and I don't think people would stumble across, but it was actually pretty good. Seemed a little more like a short novel than a movie, which is kind of a compliment, but I don't know. Dull Steak Knives.
7. Choke. The book is better, despite the best efforts of the cast. Seemed like the studio tamed it down, which is almost always the wrong choice. You're Fired, but read the book.
8. Body of Lies. Hmmm... I like international spy thrillers, and I like all of the actors and the director, but this one didn't work. Every other scene has Crowe and DiCaprio just yelling at each other over cell phones, which is lazy and lame. You're Fired.
9. Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist. The Lady liked this more than I did. Sweet, I guess. I'd have liked it were I 15. Shrug. You're Fired.
10. Milk. Fantastic performance, pretty good movie. You've heard about this before. Sharp Steak Knives.
11. W. Very good performance, pretty good movie, actually. More entertaining than it should've been. Dull Steak Knives.
12. Crank. Utterly ridiculous and awesomely entertaining. See this. Sharp Steak Knives.
13. Frozen River. Would've made a better short film or novella, but an excellent performance by Melissa Leo. Dull Steak Knives.
14. Junebug. I can tell that the film was made by someone with a complicated relationship with the South, which I think a whole lot of artsy folks down here have. I wonder why the director hasn't made another feature. Worth seeing, but maybe not while one has an impending birth. Steak Knives.
15. How To Lose Friends and Alienate People. Absolutely atrocious. Pegg, you're better than this. You're Fired.
16. The Proposition. Quite beautiful, awfully good. Fine direction. I'm fired up for The Road now. Cadillac, but you should like westerns to think the same way.
17. Pride and Glory. A movie that's been made a dozen times before. Less suspense than an average Law & Order episode. You're Fired.
18. The Transporter. Hilarious, especially the villains. Statham is so effing good. Cadillac.
19. Twilight. Offensively bad. Seriously, I was offended by the baseball scene. As a baseball fan. No self respecting man should have to watch this. You're fired.
20. Notorious. Entertaining as hell, but not exactly great. You will be glad that you've seen this. Steak Knives.
21. Rachel Getting Married. Pretentious, overacted, annoying. See The Celebration instead. You're Fired.
22. Oldboy. Exceptional filmmaking, but it was a bit too much for my tastes. I should probably see this again, knowing what I'm getting into. Reserving rating for another time.
23. The Wind that Shakes the Barley. Historical movies are hard, because they need to come from the perspective of showing the viewer something new. This didn't take the Irish Rebellion in a new direction. I didn't see anything I didn't know already. You're Fired.
24. Away from Her. Very good. One of the best dramas I've seen in a few years. Heartbreaking, realistic, sensitive, even funny. I really respect this film. Cadillac.
25. Taken. A little too serious to be in the class of awesomeness that are most Statham movies. Seeing Liam Neeson kicking people is awesome nonetheless. Steak Knives.

26. The Hangover. One theatre movie! Comedies need to be funny, and this was. I'll see it a dozen more times. Genius move: making the funniest 3 minutes of the movie the last 3 minutes. Cadillac.

A. East Bound and Down. The best television show about the modern South ever made. If you don't laugh at this show, I don't really want to hang out with you. My highest praise.

I'm sure I missed a ton.

Not Dead

Just had a lot on my plate lately is all...

2 young kids, both hilarious and amazing.
Major renovations to Douchebag Manor.
The economy has rediscovered my real job and has provided me with a way to spend a sizable amount of time.
And all sorts of other things that I've been busy with.

Nevertheless, I don't want this to die. I've been saving a lot of things to write about. Might have shorter posts, might have less interesting (to you) posts. Definitely not doing Gameday Recaps ever again. Probably won't even be watching it this year (I'd rather watch the 10:00 Premiership Match on FSC - more on that in another post). I am still interested in college football, but I have little faith in myself to add anything terribly interesting to the online discussion. Too many smart people do this with more diligence and intelligence.

I have noticed, in the past several months, that I do need an outlet for the bile.

So a welcome back to myself. But first, a few Cheers and Jeers:

Cheers to Carriage House Construction, for coming in under budget.
Jeers to the guy who broke into my car to steal $8 in quarters.
Cheers to the producers of Law & Order: Criminal Intent for adding Jeff Goldblum, who wears pretty awesome specs.
Jeers to the producers of Law & Order: Criminal Intent for making a very short season, but mainly for bringing back Det. Wheeler when they could've easily written her off.
Cheers to Hop City Beer, a fine establishment for a beer lover.
Jeers to Hop CIty Beer, for being located on the West Side, rather than in Georgia's Beer Capital, Decatur.
Cheers to the dessert waffle at Leon's Full Service.
Jeers to the Crunchie candy bar, and to me for forgetting that I didn't like it each time I'd try it again.
Cheers to my son's ticklish feet.
Jeers to inexact MRI readings.
Cheers to Tommy Hanson's breaking ball. Reminds me of a tall Maddux when it whips back over the plate.
Jeers to the Marlins, because they keep winning with a mediocre run differential.
Cheers to the triumphant return of the Guardian's Football Weekly podcast, and the melifluous cyncism of Barry Glendenning.
Jeers to the sad departure of Candace Keener from the How Stuff Works Stuff You Missed in History Class podcast.
Cheers to upcoming book releases I'm excited about: Simon Kuper's Soccernomics, Jon Krakauer's Pat Tillman book, Bill Simmons' basketball book, Jeff Ross' memoir, Joshua Ferris' follow up to the exceptional Then We Came to the End, Chuck Klosterman's Eating the Dinosaur.
Jeers to the above-referenced business getting in the way of reading, and lots of other stuff.
Cheers to having two amazing kids that never stop making me happy.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Lebron is freaking amazing.

Also...

I'm 32 today.

And I got a new kid a week and a half ago. There is now an Earl of Douchebag and he looks like a miniature version of Boris Becker circa 1988. He's awesome.

And my daughter now demands "Bagel Butter" on any breakfast item. "Bagel Butter" is cream cheese.

I lead a ridiculous life.

Sunday, March 01, 2009

If I'm gonna be a dick, I only want the challenge of being a MASSIVE dick.

So Curt Schilling says if he comes back he'd want to take on the "challenge" of either the Cubs or Rays.

The Cubs had the best record in the National League and the second best record in the Majors in 2008.

The Rays made the World Series last year and had the second best record in the AL in 2008.

Similarly, if I were to bother playing in the Ryder Cup, I'd only want the challenge of being paired with Tiger Woods. If I were to lower myself to playing professional football, I'd only want to try to fix the problems facing the Steelers, or maybe the Patriots. If I were to act in a movie, I'd only agree to allow my amazing talents to improve the dreck the Coen Brothers put out.

Seriously, if Stephon Marbury said this week that he was looking forward to the challenge of the Celtics, the media would have mocked him senseless. Schilling's got Platinum Crown Club priviliges on Douche Air Lines, but nobody seems to mention this.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Flick the Button

1. Leatherheads. I fell asleep. What was attempted was not as entertaining as what resulted. You're Fired.

2. Eagle Eye. I did not fall asleep, but this sucked. SPOILER ALERT: They steal the ending from the Simpsons episode where Homer remakes Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. And it is so ridiculous. You're Fired.

3. Ghost Town. They don't make many comedies like this - not exactly a romcom, not a grossout - which end up kind of funny and sweet, but not that good either. Gervais is a genius, but he's too restrained here. And Tea Leoni is only in mediocre or worse movies (and usually that's not her fault). A decent try for an adult comedy, but still blah. You're Fired.

4. Fred Claus. The worst Christmas movie I have ever seen, and I've seen Prancer and Santa Claus: The Movie and Toys and Jingle All the Way and some other pieces of shit. Totally useless. Paul Giamatti, Miranda Richardson, Elizabeth Banks and Rachel Weisz should all be ashamed of themselves. You're Fired.

5. WALL-E. I feel like I'm alone in thinking this way, but I sensed that this was (a) the least funny Pixar film and (b) the most preachy Pixar film. And I'm not insensitive to what it was preaching about, and I thought Cars was not good. There's cuteness but I didn't really want to see it again - and I can't say that about any other Pixar film except Cars. I feel bad about myself for not liking this more. You're Fired.

6. The House Bunny. Throwaway. Anna Faris is funnier than anything that has ever been written for her, but that also does not mean she's all that great. I'm struggling to remember anything about this. It had a few "oh wait, is that [girl from American Idol/girl from Superbad/Bruce Willis' daughter]?" moments. You're Fired.

7. Mamma Mia!. Jesus. You're Fired.

8. Mongol. Gorgeously shot and consistently interesting. Made me want to see a sequel and learn more about Genghis Khan. See this. Cadillac.

9. Death Race. Statham! Say it while you're fucking! Shockingly entertaining. Of course it's objectively terrible, yet rewatchable and absolutely awesome. My math says Steak Knives.

10. Hamlet 2. I like Coogan, but I was bored. The movie thinks it's more clever than it is. Maybe I would've liked it better if I had been into drama in high school or something. For a movie that seeks its humor from the ridiculous, this wasn't ridiculous enough. You're Fired.

11. Appaloosa. The first hour or so is awesome, but it falls apart in the last half hour or so. Women screw everything up, especially Renee Zellweger (whom I had no idea was in this movie) apparently. As long as Ed Harris and Viggo are killing people, this rules. When they start building houses and feelings start to matter, this has problems. Steak Knives.

12. Pineapple Express. A matter of expectations. I expected funnier, or maybe I expected Franco to be as good as he was. Just not surprised by anything. I was entertained though. Steak Knives.

13. Bangkok Dangerous (2008). Horribly horribly and hilariously incredible. Come for Nic Cage's outrageous forehead, stay for the ridiculousness. Between this and The Protector, Thailand has become the go-to nation for comedy. If only we could get Statham in one of those Thai movies... Steak Knives (yep!).

14. Max Payne. Ugh. Wahlberg has no sense of humor at all. Awful. You're Fired.

15. Man on Wire. An entertaining and inspiring dude, and a well made film. Recommended. Sharp Steak Knives.

16. Slumdog Millionaire. OK, I feel strongly about this movie. If you left this film not entertained, you are a prig and I don't want to hang out with you. It was suspenseful, funny, romantic, interesting, timeless, universal, and most importantly, just a good movie. It was about goodness and humanity. Political posturing about this is dickish. Cadillac.

17. Encounters at the End of the World. Watch Planet Earth instead if you want to see awesome footage of nature. Watch this if you want to be underentertained about not-as-interesting-as-presented people. Maybe I'm not a Herzog guy. You're Fired.

18. Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Only a guy like Woody Allen could get this movie made. It's not really about much of anything. It's kind of entertaining - the acting is quite good and everyone and everything looks pretty. It's also not really memorable. It'll make you smile a bit, but then forget it. You're Fired.

19. The Visitor. It's OK, I suppose, but I get the sense that critics like simple movies that don't screw things up more than complicated movies that make a few mistakes but also challenge. I wasn't bored, but I didn't learn anything either. I'll forget I've seen this, even though it's not bad. You're Fired.

20. The Diplomat. The NY Times TV critic that praised this enough for me to watch it owes me 3 hours. They took a 2 hour movie screenplay and made it shittily so it stretched. Massive plot holes. Deus Ex Machina througout. Someone teaching a class on screenwriting should use this as a "DO NOT DO THIS" lecture. But I did learn that my cable company carries something called "ION TV," so it wasn't a total loss. You're Fired, and that means you, NYT critic.

21. Zack and Miri Make a Porno. Like Kevin Smith's good movies, it's really dirty (moreso than even I expected), but also pretty sweet. I don't mind the filth if there's a reason. Elizabeth Banks is funny - really funny. Steak Knives.

22. The Rocker. Blah. Not exactly the Dwight Schrute thing, but not exactly funny. Forgettable, and I just saw it. You're Fired.

23. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Gorgeously shot, and the first hour or so is great (especially the tugboat/submarine scene). But the last hour (I'm not kidding) is just Ralph Lauren-esque photo shoots of Brad Pitt looking good. And the Katrina-era flash forwards did not add to the film. Cutting this up more would've helped. If it matters, The Lady liked this a good deal more than I did. Perhaps I'm nitpicking... I did like a lot of it, but I just have these nagging concerns I can't seem to get rid of and that seem to make me like this less and less. Still, worth seeing. Steak Knives.

Saturday, February 07, 2009

On the current scenaria.

Our economy sucks a fatttttt dick right now;

I am ready for things to turn around now. now. now. now. now.

But in the meantime, I suppose it's OK to think it's good enough that marauding tribes of machete-wielding zealots aren't murdering our families in our sleep.

positivity.. really.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Lebowski Standings - Final 2008

Done this in past years. Rankings based upon who had the best season at winning each game on their schedule. Ties among teams with the same record are broken via ColleyRatings strength of schedule, except where one team won a head-to-head matchup. Full list below the fold.

120. Washington 0-12 (1)
119. North Texas 1-11 (102)
118. SMU 1-11 (77)
117. Washington State 2-11 (50)
116. Miami U. 2-10 (113)
115. Western Kentucky 2-10 (103)
114. Idaho 2-10 (98)
113. Tulane 2-10 (85)
112. Iowa State 2-10 (76)
111. San Diego State 2-10 (71)
110. Eastern Michigan 3-9 (105)
109. Army 3-9 (101)
108. New Mexico State 3-9 (97)
107. Indiana 3-9 (64)
106. Utah State 3-9 (48)
105. Michigan 3-9 (36)
104. Toledo 3-9 (108)*
103. Syracuse 3-9 (16)
102. Kent State 4-8 (125)
101. Louisiana-Monroe 4-8 (124)
100. Ohio 4-8 (110)
99. Wyoming 4-8 (81)
98. Marshall 4-8 (70)
97. Central Florida 4-8 (93)*
96. UAB 4-8 (104)*
95. New Mexico 4-8 (51)
94. Mississippi State 4-8 (45)
93. Texas A&M 4-8 (44)
92. Purdue 4-8 (41)
91. UCLA 4-8 (28)
90. Baylor 4-8 (12)
89. Duke 4-8 (8)
88. MTSU 5-7 (122)
87. Florida International 5-7 (119)
86. Akron 5-7 (115)
85. Temple 5-7 (106)
84. UTEP 5-7 (84)
83. Kansas State 5-7 (80)
82. Louisville 5-7 (68)
81. Illinois 5-7 (55)
80. Tennessee 5-7 (32)
79. Auburn 5-7 (38)*
78. Colorado 5-7 (23)
77. Stanford 5-7 (22)
76. Arizona State 5-7 (53)*
75. UNLV 5-7 (72)*
74. Arkansas 5-7 (6)
73. Virginia 5-7 (2)
72. Northern Illinois 6-7 (118)
71. Memphis 6-7 (111)
70. NC State 6-7 (11)
69. Hawaii 7-7 (75)
68. Arkansas State 6-6 (123)
67. Louisiana-Lafayette 6-6 (126)*
66. Bowling Green 6-6 (117)
65. San Jose State 6-6 (107)
64. Florida Atlantic 7-6 (109)
63. Southern Mississippi 7-6 (96)
62. Fresno State 7-6 (95)
61. Minnesota 7-6 (88)
60. Nevada 7-6 (82)
59. Wisconsin 7-6 (66)
58. Notre Dame 7-6 (63)
57. Colorado State 7-6 (61)
56. Kentucky 7-6 (56)
55. U. of Miami 7-6 (18)
54. South Carolina 7-6 (14)
53. Clemson 7-6 (21)*
52. Vanderbilt 7-6 (13)
51. Buffalo 8-6 (94)
50. Troy 8-5 (121)
49. Louisiana Tech 8-5 (114)
48. Central Michigan 8-5 (112)
47. Houston 8-5 (92)
46. Arizona 8-5 (79)
45. Air Force 8-5 (78)
44. Navy 8-5 (86)*
43. Connecticut 8-5 (58)
42. Louisiana State 8-5 (47)
41. Kansas 8-5 (29)
40. South Florida 8-5 (67)*
39. Rutgers 8-5 (59)*
38. North Carolina 8-5 (20)
37. Wake Forest 8-5 (9)
36. Maryland 8-5 (46)*
35. East Carolina 9-5 (83)
34. Boston College 9-5 (30)
33. Western Michigan 9-4 (116)
32. Iowa 9-4 (74)
31. Northwestern 9-4 (87)*
30. West Virginia 9-4 (54)
29. Oklahoma State 9-4 (43)
28. Michigan State 9-4 (37)
27. Nebraska 9-4 (34)
26. California 9-4 (31)
25. Florida State 9-4 (27)
24. Georgia Tech 9-4 (42)*
23. Mississippi 9-4 (26)
22. Pittsburgh 9-4 (15)
21. Oregon State 9-4 (7)
20. Missouri 10-4 (39)
19. Virginia Tech 10-4 (17)
18. Rice 10-3 (100)
17. Brigham Young 10-3 (91)
16. Oregon 10-3 (52)
15. Ohio State 10-3 (40)
14. Georgia 10-3 (10)
13. Tulsa 11-3 (120)
12. Cincinnati 11-3 (62)
11. TCU 11-2 (69)
10. Penn State 11-2 (65)
9. Texas Tech 11-2 (60)
8. Ball State 12-2 (127)
7. Alabama 12-2 (33)
6. Oklahoma 12-2 (4)
5. Boise State 12-1 (99)
4. Southern California 12-1 (35)
3. Texas 12-1 (5)
2. Florida 13-1 (3)
1. Utah 13-0 (73)

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Too bad all the Tech Fans had left already

I love Les Miles.

Any man who will run a fake punt while up 35 in the 4th quarter on Georgia Tech gets my lifelong affection. Bravo to you, sir.

Amazing dickishness. All my praise comes your way.

Monday, December 29, 2008

A College Football Primer for NFL Fans

This play is a microcosm of how the Georgia-Georgia Tech series has typically gone (this year notwithstanding).

That is all.

Sunday, December 07, 2008

If Lorne Michaels is still alive

MAKE JORMA TACCONE A CAST MEMBER OF SNL.

He's a writer and was hysterical in the classic digital short last night. Dude is a genius. If you haven't already, go rent Hot Rod and focus on Kevin. Hilarious.

Flick the Button

Oh crap I'm way behind on these. I know I've missed some of them...

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Waste of time. Old people running but not hilariously. And homages to movies that weren't that good to begin with. And that's before we get to the alien bullshit. You're Fired.

2. Iron Man. Without Downey, this is Daredevil. But with Downey, this is great fun. Is it just me, or does Downey seem like the kind of actor that actually entertains, rather than the sort that Hollywood thinks we're interested in? I want to see this again. Cadillac.

3. The Incredible Hulk. Wasn't as fun as Iron Man, but I still liked it. I liked how there wasn't a deeper meaning, just popcorn. And I liked how instead of picking a world landmark to blow up in CGI, they for the most part just destroyed a college campus. Steak Knives.

4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall. A little long, a little painful, but funny at times too. I can't help liking Russell Brand or Kristin Bell either. There's kind of a problem with the Apatow stable writing their therapy sessions into their movies, but they get some pretty good jokes in too. I would go see the vampire musical. Steak Knives.

5. You Don't Mess with the Zohan. I don't believe it myself, but this was funny. Honestly, I thought I would hate this so much, but everyone in it has this stupid smile on their face and the jokes aren't as quite easy as the last 5 or 6 Sandler comedies (like I said, Apatow gets some jokes in). I've seen a lot of pretty bad movies lately, and stunningly, this wasn't one. Steak Knives (and I liked it better than Sarah Marshall).

6. Get Smart. So was Anne Hathaway supposed to be Steve Carrell's love interest? If so, that's weird. Anyway, if this was supposed to be funny, it wasn't. It also wasn't exciting. A complete failure. You're Fired.

7. Baby Mama. Forgotten just about everything about this, and I like Tina Fey and Amy Poehler and I've been through the baby thing recently enough to get the jokes. I guess I liked Amy Poehler's Philly accent. You're Fired.

8. The Foot Fist Way. I'd like to see this a few more times, at increasing levels of drunkenness. Sure, the plot doesn't really exist. Danny McBride is hilarious nonetheless. Steak Knives (but I reserve the right to increase this upon future viewings).

9. Smart People. Offensively bad. You're Fired.

10. Charlie Bartlett. Anton Yelchin is game, but it's not as funny or interesting as it could've been. And it felt like Downey was reined in. We've been here before and funnier. You're Fired.

11. Role Models. We've been here before, but not funnier. Take a formulaic comedy, add T&A, add copious amounts of cussing, add funny actors and a director that knows comic timing. I know you're thinking that this is a movie you can wait for a rental, but definitely remember to rent it. It's very funny. Steak Knife/Cadillac.

12. Kung Fu Panda. Way more violent than I was expecting. Not for kids under 10 or so, I'd guess. But it is kind of amusing and kind of entertaining. Definitely feels like a Dreamworks animated movie and not a Pixar movie, and that's not a good thing. Fired/Knife.

13. Hellboy II: The Golden Army. Having a locker full of Tecate in a can is fucking awesome. I liked this a hell of a lot more than the first one, and a lot more than most action or comic movies. Not quite Iron Man level, because Pearlman is good but not Downey great. Also better than Hulk and 2 of the 3 Spiderman movies. Sharp Steak Knives.

14. State of Play. Why are British television miniseries better than most American feature films? Well acted and well written. Yes, there are some timeline problems (people appearing in 2 spots across London within moments). It's still as interesting as anything I've watched in a year. And everything Bill Nighy does is gold. See this before the Ben Affleck/Russell Crowe 2 hour version comes out (though I trust Kevin MacDonald to do a decent job). Cadillac.

15. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2. Obviously this was a choice of the Lady's (and she'd seen the first one when I wasn't around). Umm... It's OK if you want to see something like this? I didn't want to particularly watch it, and I spent most of the time on the computer or reading, but it didn't bother me that it was on. Fired, I guess?

16. Hancock. I liked the idea, but the outcome wasn't exactly good. The CGI was confusing: the flying looked like the original Superman green-screening, but some other stuff looked pretty cool. It was short, which was fine because the movie was kind of crappy. Even though I have no idea what they could've done to make it better, I don't think they focused on the most interesting things about the characters. You're Fired.

17. Step Brothers. I take great care in saying this: I do not think another movie made this decade has as many great one-liners. I know this movie will get repeat viewings. Don't fall for the conventional wisdom that Ferrell is passe. Semi-Pro just sucked. This was funny. Cadillac.

18. Wanted. I watch a lot of crappy action movies, so when I see one that I like I might go overboard on it. That may be why I got fired up about Iron Man and Hellboy II. I liked Wanted better than either. It's action scenes are crazy and kind of goofy, but they just work. McAvoy seems like an odd choice for an action star, but he pulls it off. And Jolie, well, what can you say? She's a freak of nature. I liked the dialogue, I liked the stunt sequences, I liked the plot (even though I could kind of figure things out). I would like for there to be more of these movies. I was upset when it ended. Cadillac.

19. Tropic Thunder. We have so many comedies lately that are really just ad-lib scenes in a tired setup; it's almost odd when we see a comedy that has an actual plot more than just a skeleton for sketches. This was kind of a real movie, that happened to have funny scenes in it (aside from a few sequences). Downey, again, is the star among stars. He's the funniest in a cast of guys who usually carry their own comedies. He's a fantastic actor. I'd like to see him nominated for awards for this performance. I don't know if there are many actors who could have pulled it off. Cadillac.

20. The Protector. Might be the best movie to watch while drunk ever. Baby elephants; kicking; ridiculous music, lighting and costumes; Thai canal boat chases that lead to helicopter explosions (which Die Hard 4 totally ripped off!); kinda trippy animation; actors that look like Street Fighter characters. Wildly hilarious. Also: this movie could have been made in 1985 or 2015 and sent back in a time machine. We'll never know. It's insanely, entertainingly ridiculous. Cadillac.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Yikes

472 yards rushing against a D that only gave up 23 points and 345 total yards to Florida? And we gave up how many yards to that freshman Kentucky QB on the option? Scary.

I'm not feeling as good about 8 in a row as I was a few months ago.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Set your TiVos

The Nightman cometh on Thursday.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

General Bowl Predictions

Looks like a Disney New Years for UGA. Dawg fans hoping for the Cotton Bowl need to learn the rules. The BCS will likely take both Alabama and Florida. Capital One picks first of the remaining SEC teams. Even if we lose to Tech, I don't see the erstwhile Citrus Bowl picking 3-loss LSU over us. But if they did take the Bayou Bengals, the Cotton can't take an SEC East team until the Outback Bowl chooses one first. Thus, LSU and presumably South Carolina would have to be more attractive than Georgia for us to go to Dallas.

For the best possible bowl matchup, Dawg fans should root for both Oregon State and USC to win out. If those two "top" Pac-10 teams win the rest of their games, both will go to the BCS, leaving the Big 10 with only 1 BCS team, and the Dawgs would face the Buckeyes or Penn State (if they lose to Michigan State). If one or both of those Pac 10 teams lose, that would open the door for a Big 10 non-champion to go to the Fiesta, and Georgia would probably face Michigan State in Mousetown.

Here's how I see things shaking out for the BCS and SEC tie-in bowls:

BCS Championship: Texas Tech v. Florida
Rose Bowl: Oregon State v. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Texas v. Southern Cal
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Maryland v. Utah

Capital One Bowl: Georgia v. Ohio State
Cotton Bowl: LSU v. Oklahoma
Outback Bowl: South Carolina v. Michigan State
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Vanderbilt v. some ACC chump
Liberty Bowl: Kentucky v. some Conference USA chump
Music City Bowl: Ole Miss v. some ACC chump
Independence Bowl: Non SEC v. some irrelevant chump
PapaJohns.com Bowl: Non SEC v. some irrelevant chump

Yep. I predict the SEC will be 2 teams shy of fulfilling their contractual tie-ins. The only teams not listed above that could become bowl eligible are Auburn if they beat Alabama (yeah, right), and Arkansas if they beat both Mississippi State and LSU (unlikely).

I heard Kirk Herbstreit on the radio last week say that he thinks his Buckeyes would go to the Sugar to face the loser of the SEC Championship Game. That statement shows his fundamental misunderstanding of how the BCS works.

There are ten BCS slots. 6 are automatic conference champs (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 10, and SEC). We can safely assume that the SEC and the Big XII will each get an extra BCS team. That leaves two spots, and this year, one is reserved for Cinderella. Because of the mediocrity of the ACC and Big East, it is all but certain that there will be a BCS buster this year. Even if Utah, Boise, and Ball State each lose all of their remaining games, BYU would very likely be in the Top 16 and ranked above the champion of one or both the ACC and Big East. (BYU and Utah's only remaining game is against each other). That leaves the last spot for either a second Pac 10 team or a second Big 10 team, but not both.

It's possible for Ohio State to go to the Rose or Fiesta, but the Sugar is simply too long a shot. If Penn State loses to Michigan State, and Ohio State beats Michigan, then the Buckeyes go to Pasadena. If that doesn't happen, Ohio State should hope for an Oregon State loss, sending USC to the Rose, raising the chance for the Buckeyes to be selected by the Fiesta.

For Ohio State to go to the Sugar, the Fiesta would have to decide not to take Ohio State, and instead choose either a BCS party-crasher (the highest ranked of Utah/Boise/Ball St./BYU) or the Big East champ (likely the winner of Pitt v. Cincy). Not bloody likely.

Let me explain my predictions above, and it may shed some light on the procedure, for Herbsreit's edification:

#1 and #2 go to the BCS championship. The bowl that "loses" the #1 team picks next. I predict Texas Tech to win the Big XII and be #1 in the final BCS standings. The Fiesta would pick Texas for their first slot. Assuming Florida wins the SEC and sits at #2, the Sugar picks next to replace the SEC champ, and they will take Alabama.

The Rose Bowl will have the Pac 10 champ against the Big 10 champ. Oregon State controls its own destiny. The road is tough with its final two games against teams with winning records (which are rare in the Pac 10). First they play at Arizona (6-4), then finish the season at home in the Civil War against archrival Oregon (8-3). Making things even tougher, the Ducks have a week off to prepare while the Beavers duel in the desert with the Wildcats. Still, I think Jaquizz and the boys will win their way to Pasadena to face Paterno and PSU.

The ACC champ automatically goes to the Orange. I'm guessing Maryland, but it could just as easily be any of a bunch of other equally mediocre teams.

The final three slots are on a yearly rotation, with this year the order being Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. The Big East champion must be selected at some point, as must the highest ranked team from a non-BCS conference if they are in the top 12 or in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference champ, which I predict will be Utah. The Fiesta also could select an at-large team, i.e., any team in the top 14 whose conference does not have two teams already slotted. If what I predict above is correct, then USC and Ohio State are really the only contenders for the last at-large bid. USC is ranked much higher, beat tOSU head-to-head, and its fan-base is closer to Glendale, so I see the Trojans getting the nod to face Texas. (This is what sends the Buckeyes to Orlando to face Georgia).

After the Fiesta picks, the Sugar has only two options. It must pick either (1) the "Cinderella" which will probably be Utah or (2) the Big East champ, which I predict will be Cincinnati with a win over Pitt. Even though Utah would be ranked ahead of the Bearcats, simple economics come into play. Although "Mormon" and "Bourbon" loosely rhyme, the two don't really go together, and Utah fans won't spend as much in the French Quarter as the Big East blue-collar boozers. If, however, Florida loses to Alabama, the Sugar Bowl may select Utah over the winner of Pitt/Cincy to set up Urban Meyer against his old team, but I doubt that is enough of a pull to overcome the money matters.

Whichever of those two that the Sugar doesn't pick will face the ACC champ in the Orange Bowl.

Are there other possibilities? Sure. In my list above, Bama and Florida are interchangeable, depending on the outcome in Atlanta. The SEC champ's opponent is still up in the air, too. If the Big XII South representative wins the conference championship game in Kansas City, they'll win the opportunity to play for the Crystal Pigskin. I predict Texas Tech, but if Oklahoma beats the Red Raiders and Okie State, the Big XII South will decided by highest BCS ranking among Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma. My guess is Texas would then sneak in to play Mizzou, but Oklahoma might overcome their head-to-head loss to Texas with an impressive final-week win over Oklahoma State. Regardless of who wins that mysterious tiebreaker, if the Big XII North can pull out the upset in KC, that would pull the pin on this year's BCS exploding shit grenade. USC could then sneak back into the title game, unless the Beavers prevent the Trojans from winning their conference, in which case Penn State may have new life. But why not let an undefeated Utah jump all 1-loss teams to face the SEC champ in that scenario?

So there's still a lot yet to be seen, including whether Kirk Herbstreit will ever learn the rules. I'm looking forward to some colossal games in the coming weeks, particularly Oklahoma v. Texas Tech and Florida v. Alabama, as well as the State Championship game in Athens on 11/29.

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